Will We Ever Stop Using Fossil Fuels?

The Current Reliance on Fossil Fuels

Fossil fuels including coal, oil, and natural gas currently supply about 80 percent of the world’s energy demands according to EESI. The main fossil fuels used today are coal, natural gas, and oil, primarily for electricity generation, heating, and transportation. Global energy production increased 2% from 2019 to 2020, with fossil fuels accounting for over 80% of total energy supply according to the International Energy Agency.

The continued reliance on fossil fuels exists for several key reasons. Extensive infrastructure already exists for producing, distributing, and using fossil fuel energy across industries and societies. Fossil fuels are energy dense and convenient sources that have powered economic growth for over a century. The transition costs to new renewable infrastructure at scale are very high. Fossil fuel companies still wield enormous economic and political influence globally. And consumer behaviors and preferences adapt slowly. Together these factors perpetuate the status quo reliance.

The Transition to Renewables

Renewable energy sources like solar and wind have seen tremendous growth in recent years. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), renewable power capacity is expected to grow by 2,400 gigawatts between 2022-2027, equal to the entire current global power capacity (IEA, 2022). The main renewable energy sources include:

• Solar power
• Wind power
• Hydropower
• Bioenergy
• Geothermal energy

Projections show continued strong growth for renewables. The IEA predicts renewable energy will account for over 90% of global power expansion through 2026, with solar PV alone providing over one-third of new supply (IEA, 2022). Deloitte estimates global renewable capacity will nearly double from 2020 to 2030, reaching over 5,000 GW (Deloitte, 2022).

Challenges With Transitioning Away

Transitioning away from fossil fuels presents several significant challenges that must be overcome for a successful shift to renewable energy. Three major challenges involve infrastructure changes, consumer behavior changes, and political and industry opposition.

From an infrastructure standpoint, massive investments and upgrades will be required to modernize energy grids, install EV charging stations, build large-scale renewable energy projects, and more. According to the IMF, the global clean energy transition could require over $100 trillion in infrastructure investments through 2050 [1]. Upgrading infrastructure across regions and countries will take substantial time and coordination.

In addition to infrastructure, this transition requires changes to consumer habits and expectations. Homeowners may need to replace gas furnaces and stoves with electric versions. Car owners will need to become comfortable with purchasing and driving EVs rather than gas vehicles. Individual actions like these on a mass scale are critical to reducing fossil fuel demand.

Finally, political and corporate opposition presents roadblocks due to money and power tied up in the fossil fuel industry. Politicians funded by oil and gas companies may resist climate policies. Major producers cling to their business models and assets. Overcoming the inertia of the status quo represents an obstacle for many localities and nations [2].

Environmental Impacts of Fossil Fuels

The burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas has had massive detrimental effects on the environment. The most significant impact is climate change driven by the greenhouse gases emitted from fossil fuel use. According to the EPA, the largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. are from burning fossil fuels for electricity, transportation, industry, and commercial/residential needs [1]. These gases like carbon dioxide and methane trap heat in the atmosphere and cause average global temperatures to rise. Increased climate variability, extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and melting ice caps are some of the major consequences.

Fossil fuel emissions also cause substantial air pollution that can affect respiratory and cardiovascular health. Power plants, industrial facilities, and vehicles all emit pollutants like sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter, mercury, and more. Exposure to this pollution increases risks for lung infections, lung cancer, asthma attacks, and cardiovascular diseases. Air pollution caused an estimated 8.7 million extra deaths globally in 2018 alone [2].

Water pollution is another major issue, as activities like mining, fracking, and oil spills can contaminate drinking water and ecosystems. Wastewater from fracking contains heavy metals, radioactive materials, and carcinogens that pollute surface and groundwater. Acid rain caused by fossil fuel emissions makes lakes and rivers more acidic and damages aquatic life. There are also thousands of oil spills annually, harming marine environments.

New Technologies and Innovations

There are many exciting new technologies and innovations that are making renewable energy sources more viable replacements for fossil fuels. Advances in solar and wind power have driven down costs dramatically in the past decade. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the costs of solar PV and onshore wind have dropped around 85% and 55% respectively since 2010. Improvements in energy storage, like advanced batteries and pumped hydro storage, are also helping to overcome intermittency issues with renewables. The rise of smart grids and demand management further enables the integration of variable renewable sources.

There have also been promising developments in carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies in recent years. CCS involves capturing CO2 emissions from industrial processes or power plants before they are released into the atmosphere and then storing that CO2 underground. According to the IEA, CCS could mitigate up to 15% of global emissions by 2050. Technologies like direct air capture, which pull existing CO2 out of the air, are also advancing. With further research and investment, CCS and other carbon removal technologies have the potential to significantly reduce emissions from fossil fuel use.

Additionally, innovations in renewable fuels like green hydrogen and sustainable biofuels offer alternatives for decarbonizing sectors like heavy industry and aviation that are difficult to electrify. While no single technology will solve the climate crisis alone, this wave of innovation across the energy sector provides many reasons for optimism about transitioning away from fossil fuels.

Government Policy

Government policies can play a crucial role in catalyzing the transition away from fossil fuels. Many governments around the world are implementing policies to accelerate the adoption of renewable energy sources.

One key policy is providing subsidies and other financial incentives for renewable energy, like tax credits for purchasing solar panels or wind turbines. According to the US EPA, as of 2020, 29 states had renewable portfolio standards requiring electric utilities to obtain a minimum percentage of their electricity from renewable sources [1]. Subsidies make renewables more cost-competitive with conventional fossil fuels.

Governments are also increasingly putting a price on carbon emissions through carbon taxes or cap-and-trade systems. These policies make fossil fuels more expensive to reflect their environmental costs and encourage the transition to cleaner energy sources. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, 45 national and 32 subnational jurisdictions have implemented some form of carbon pricing [2].

Additionally, some governments have implemented bans on new fossil fuel infrastructure, like coal power plants. These policies limit future fossil fuel dependence and development. For example, France, New Zealand, Denmark and Spain have all announced bans on new oil and gas exploration and extraction [2].

Corporate Efforts

Many major corporations around the world are taking steps to transition away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy sources. Some key corporate efforts include:

Setting ambitious renewable energy goals – According to The CEO Magazine, companies like Estee Lauder, Bank of New York Mellon, and Voya Financial have pledged to power their operations with 100% renewable energy in the coming years. Tech giants like Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Facebook have also made commitments to using clean energy.

Divesting from fossil fuels – Major asset managers like BlackRock and Vanguard have been divesting from coal and starting to move away from oil and gas investments. Many pension funds, universities, and philanthropic foundations are also shifting assets away from fossil fuels.

Investing in clean technologies – Corporations are pouring billions into startups and projects focused on renewable energy, electric vehicles, battery storage, hydrogen, carbon removal and more. According to Sustainability Magazine, companies like Brookfield Renewable Partners, Plug Power, and Canadian Solar are leading renewable energy investors.

While corporate commitments are mounting, continued action and follow-through will be essential to meaningfully transition from fossil fuels to cleaner forms of energy.

Public Opinion

Public opinion polls show strong concern about climate change and support for transitioning to renewable energy among Americans. A June 2023 Pew Research Center survey found that 75% of U.S. adults say the priority should be on developing alternative energy sources like wind and solar power over expansion of fossil fuel sources like oil, coal and gas. This represents a steady increase over the last decade, up from 54% in 2012.

This aligns with mounting activism and protests against fossil fuel infrastructure and drilling. Climate activists argue that further fossil fuel extraction and infrastructure will “lock-in” emissions that put global climate targets out of reach. High profile protests against pipelines like Keystone XL and Dakota Access have brought attention to these issues.

Despite general favorability, local renewable energy projects like wind and solar farms sometimes face public opposition and NIMBYism (Not In My Backyard). Concerns about noise, views, and wildlife impact are often cited. Still, Pew finds 67% of Americans would favor more wind turbine farms locally and 80% are in favor of more solar panel farms.

Overall, public opinion and activism reflects a societal reckoning about the need to urgently transition away from fossil fuels to address the climate crisis. This pressure from the public will likely continue pushing governments and corporations to take bolder action.

Potential Timeline and Roadblocks

Many experts predict that the transition away from fossil fuels will take several decades. The International Energy Agency projects that renewable energy will overtake coal to become the largest source of electricity generation worldwide by 2025 (Timeline). However, fossil fuels are expected to still make up a majority of global energy use through at least 2040 (History).

There are several factors that could delay the transition. Developing nations may continue relying on cheaper fossil fuels as they industrialize and build infrastructure. Pushback from fossil fuel companies attempting to protect their profits could also impede the pace of change (Transition). Additionally, transitioning the transportation and manufacturing sectors away from oil and gas dependence will take substantial time and investment in electric vehicles, biofuels, battery storage, and more.

The role of developing nations will be critical. Financial and technological assistance will be needed to help developing countries leapfrog over fossil fuel dependence directly to renewable energy. The costs and challenges of transitioning modern industrialized nations away from entrenched fossil fuel infrastructure should not be underestimated either.

Imagining a Post-Fossil Fuel World

What would a post-fossil fuel world powered entirely by renewable energy look like? In many ways, it would represent a dramatic improvement for the environment and society.

A 100% renewable energy system would rely on sources like solar, wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, and biomass power. With fossil fuels phased out, greenhouse gas emissions would plummet, slowing the rate of climate change. Air pollution from the burning of coal, oil, and gas would also diminish, improving respiratory health. According to one analysis, the renewable transition could prevent millions of premature deaths globally.

Beyond the environmental benefits, an all-renewable grid could also mean more democratic and decentralized energy production. Rooftop solar panels allow households to generate their own power, while community solar projects let neighborhoods share clean electricity. Jobs in the fossil fuel industry would decline, but likely be replaced by new jobs in renewable energy.

However, phasing out fossil fuels completely poses numerous challenges. Renewables remain more expensive than fossil fuels in many contexts. Energy storage and grid flexibility will need major upgrades to account for intermittent solar and wind power. Heavy industry and transportation may struggle to replace the high energy density of oil and gas. Achieving an equitable and just transition will also require protecting vulnerable workers and communities currently dependent on the fossil fuel industry.

While the vision of a 100% renewable energy system is appealing, the shift away from fossil fuels will likely need to happen gradually, with societies worldwide working together to overcome the technical and social challenges involved.