What Is The Renewable Energy Outlook For 2024?
Renewable energy sources like solar, wind, hydropower, and bioenergy are critical for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating climate change. Renewable energy capacity and generation have grown rapidly over the past decade due to supportive policies, cost reductions, and technology improvements. This growth is expected to continue as countries seek to meet climate goals and decarbonize their energy systems.
In 2024, renewable energy production and capacity will likely see strong continued growth globally. This is driven by the declining costs of renewables, increased policy support and targets, and maturing technologies like battery storage that enable greater grid integration of variable renewables like wind and solar. Key countries and regions will expand their renewable energy portfolios to meet rising power demand in a sustainable manner.
This article provides an outlook on the growth of renewables in 2024, analyzing trends and developments for key technologies like solar, wind, hydropower, and bioenergy. Market and policy factors enabling the renewable energy transition are discussed. The analysis aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the promising renewable energy landscape in 2024.
Solar Energy
The solar energy industry is expected to experience robust growth in 2024. According to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), the United States is projected to install 25 gigawatts (GW) of new solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in 2024, representing a 6% increase over 2023 installations.1 Worldwide, new solar PV installations could reach 184 GW in 2024, up from an estimated 181 GW in 2023, driven by strong demand in Europe and Asia.2
The declining costs of solar panels and favorable policies continue to make solar power more affordable and accessible. The average price of a solar PV system in the U.S. is forecasted to drop another 6% in 2024 as technology improves.1 Key markets like California, Texas, Florida and the Northeast are expected to see the most solar growth based on policy incentives and renewable energy goals.3
While the majority of new installations will be solar PV, concentrating solar thermal power capacity is also projected to grow about 10% globally in 2024.2 With thermal energy storage, CSP provides a dispatchable renewable source to help balance the grid. The Southwest U.S., Middle East, North Africa and Asia are key markets for CSP expansion.
Wind Energy
The wind power industry is expected to see continued growth in 2024, driven by cost reductions, technological improvements, and supportive policies. According to the Energy Information Administration, over 19 GW of new wind capacity is forecasted to come online in the US in 2024.
Onshore wind will continue to expand, with over 15 GW of new capacity expected. Texas is projected to lead new onshore installations, adding over 5 GW due to ample wind resources and state policies supporting renewable growth. Offshore wind capacity is also poised for major expansion in 2024, with over 4 GW of new offshore wind farms slated to begin operations along the East Coast. Massive expansion of renewable power opens door to …
Globally, wind power is forecasted to see the most growth among renewable sources, with over 93 GW added worldwide according to the International Energy Agency. China is expected to lead, installing as much new wind power in 2024 as the entire world did in 2022. The growth in offshore wind will be concentrated in Europe and China, with Europe commissioning over 5 GW of new offshore capacity. Offshore wind faces more financial turbulence in 2024
Hydropower
Hydropower is projected to play an important role in 2024, with continued expansion through new capacity additions and upgrades to existing infrastructure (More, Better, Faster). Pumped storage hydropower and small hydro projects are expected to see growth, boosting overall hydropower output.
In the U.S., over 1.5 GW of new hydroelectric capacity is projected to come online in 2024, the majority from pumped storage additions in California and Virginia (Solar likely to outpace hydropower’s annual generation in 2024). Upgrades to existing dams and turbines at major facilities like the Grand Coulee Dam will also increase generation. Globally, the hydropower market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of over 3% from 2022-2030, with Asia Pacific leading in new installed capacity.
The expansion of pumped storage will help integrate renewables and improve grid reliability. Small and low-impact hydro projects also continue to grow, providing distributed clean energy. With infrastructure upgrades and sustainable development, hydropower is poised to meet increasing electricity demand in a renewable, reliable manner.
Bioenergy
Bioenergy is projected to see continued growth in 2024, driven by policy support, cost competitiveness, and energy security concerns. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), biofuel demand is expected to rise by 6% or 5,700 million liters between 2022 and 2024 in advanced economies, with most of the increase occurring in the United States and Europe.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that biomass generation will rebound partially to 26 billion kWh in 2024, after a dip in 2023. EIA analysis shows expanded production of sustainable biofuels made from agricultural wastes and residues, municipal solid waste, and purpose-grown energy crops.
Countries are enacting policies such as renewable fuel standards, carbon pricing programs, and incentives for biogas and waste-to-energy projects. The competitiveness of bioenergy compared to fossil fuels will also support growth. Concerns about energy security following the Russia-Ukraine war are further accelerating Europe’s adoption of biofuels. Overall, these factors point to a positive outlook for bioenergy in 2024.
Geothermal
Going into 2024, projections show continued growth in geothermal power capacity globally. According to the PE Medianetwork, geothermal capacity is expected to expand by 2.5 GW in 2024, led by top markets like the United States, Indonesia, Turkey and the Philippines (Outlook 2024: Geothermal energy sector set for growth). The geothermal market size could reach $6.8 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 5.7% from 2022-2024 according to projections (Geothermal Energy Market Size In 2024 : Growth Opportunities).
Driving continued growth is technology improvements that are making geothermal capacity economical in more locations. Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) are expanding viable geothermal resources. And hybrid power plants that combine geothermal with solar PV or biomass combustion are improving project economics and capacity factors (Global Geothermal Impact Summit 2024). With these technology innovations and supportive policies, geothermal power looks positioned for steady additions in 2024.
Ocean Energy
Ocean energy refers to technologies that harness the energy from waves, tides, currents, salinity gradients, and ocean thermal gradients to generate electricity. Some of the main ocean energy technologies in development include:
- Tidal power – Using tidal barrages, turbines, or other devices to capture the energy from the rise and fall of tides.
- Wave power – Using devices like point absorbers, oscillating water columns, or attenuators to capture the kinetic energy from ocean surface waves.
- Ocean current power – Using underwater turbines placed in areas with consistent ocean currents.
According to one analysis, the global ocean energy market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.4% from 2024-2031, reaching over $17 billion by 2031. This growth will be driven by increasing capacity additions, especially in Europe where countries like the UK, France, and Portugal are supporting ocean energy development. The analysis projects over 5 GW of ocean energy will be installed globally by 2031. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/analysis-ocean-energy-market-2024-2031-based-size-donif/
Ocean energy technologies are still pre-commercial but costs are expected to come down as deployments increase. Key challenges remain around device reliability, grid integration, permitting, and financing for projects. Significant technology innovation and investment will be needed for ocean energy to fully mature and make a substantial contribution to renewables globally by 2024 and beyond.
Storage and Grid Modernization
The growth of renewable energy is driving increased deployments of energy storage to better manage the variable nature of solar and wind. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), energy storage capacity in the United States could reach over 30 GW by 2024, more than double the capacity in 2022 (EIA). Large-scale batteries and other storage technologies help integrate renewables and maintain grid reliability.
Upgrades to transmission infrastructure will also be critical over the next few years to get more renewable energy onto the grid. New high-voltage transmission lines are planned to link renewable energy production in the Midwest and Southwest to major population load centers (Energy Storage News).
Smart grid technologies, like advanced metering infrastructure, distribution automation, and advanced analytics, will continue to be deployed. These technologies help utilities better manage distributed energy resources like rooftop solar and behind-the-meter storage. Smart grid investments also enable greater observability and control of the distribution system as more renewable generation comes online (LG Energy).
Policy and Market Drivers
Renewable energy policies at the federal, state, and local levels will continue to boost renewable deployment across the United States over the next decade. According to Deloitte, 29 states and Washington, D.C. currently have renewable portfolio standards (RPS) which require utilities to use renewables for a specific percentage of their generation. RPS and similar policies are expected to significantly drive the growth in renewables. Additionally, over 500 U.S. cities have committed to transition to 100% renewable electricity.
Carbon pricing policies like cap-and-trade programs and carbon taxes will also incentivize renewable energy growth while discouraging fossil fuel use. According to S&P Global, over 40 countries have implemented carbon pricing programs. More local and national governments are expected to adopt carbon pricing by 2024.
As per Deloitte’s analysis, the costs of renewable energy technologies like solar PV and onshore wind have fallen dramatically in the last decade, making renewables highly competitive with conventional energy sources in many markets. This cost competitiveness will be a major driver of increased renewable energy deployment through 2024 and beyond.
Large corporations are also increasingly procuring renewable energy through power purchase agreements and other mechanisms to meet sustainability targets. According to S&P Global, corporate renewable energy procurement in the U.S. nearly doubled from 2020 to 2021 and is projected to expand significantly through 2024.
Conclusion
In summary, key renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and hydropower are projected to see significant growth by 2024. Solar capacity is expected to increase by over 50% globally, while onshore wind could grow by 57%. This is driven by declining costs, supportive policies, and corporations and utilities setting ambitious renewable energy targets. Reaching these projections will be critical for meeting global climate goals and improving energy security by diversifying energy supplies.
However, challenges remain. Grid infrastructure upgrades, storage technology improvements, and policy support will need to keep pace with renewable energy deployment. Robust transmission networks, energy storage, and management systems will be key to integrating higher shares of renewables. Continued technological advances and cost declines will also be needed to maximize adoption.
Beyond 2024, the outlook is bright for renewables to continue their momentum. With focused investments, research, and enabling policies, renewable energy is poised to transform our energy systems and enable a low-carbon future.
