What Is The Next Big Thing In Renewable Energy?

Renewable energy is becoming increasingly important as countries and companies look to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate climate change. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), renewable energy accounted for over 42% of global electricity generation in 2028, with wind and solar doubling their share to 25% (IEA). The growth of renewable energy has been remarkable, with Statista reporting an expected annual growth rate of 3.88% between 2024-2028 for the renewable energy industry worldwide (Statista). Renewables like solar, wind, and hydropower are now the fastest growing energy sources in the world.

The rapid growth of renewables demonstrates their increasing economic viability and importance in building sustainable energy systems. Governments and corporations around the world are investing heavily in renewable technology development and capacity expansion. According to the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, renewable energy in the United States increased 42% from 2010 to 2020 (C2ES). The transition to renewables is being driven by declining costs, supportive policies, and innovations that are unlocking affordable and reliable clean energy options.

Solar

Solar power has seen dramatic cost reductions and efficiency improvements over the last decade, making it one of the most promising renewable energy sources.

According to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the cost of solar has declined significantly from 2010 to 2020 across residential, commercial, and utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) systems. The cost of residential solar panels fell by more than 70% in that time period, while utility-scale solar costs dropped by 90% (NREL).

CNET reports that the average cost of solar panels has fallen from around $50,000 per system just 10 years ago to between $15,000-$25,000 today. This is largely driven by decreasing material and installation costs as the solar industry has scaled up (CNET).

According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the global weighted average levelized cost of electricity from solar PV decreased by 82% from 2010 to 2019. Experts predict the cost declines to continue as technology improves (Intersect Power).

In addition to cost reductions, solar panel efficiency has steadily increased. The average efficiency of commercial panels has risen from around 15% to over 20% in the past 10 years, enabling more electricity generation from the same sized systems.

Wind

Wind energy, especially offshore wind, has major potential for growth globally in the coming years. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, state policies aim to procure over 112 GW of offshore wind capacity in the U.S. by 2050, with major efforts underway in states like New York and New Jersey [1]. The Global Wind Energy Council reports that global offshore wind capacity grew by 16% in 2022 to reach 64.3 GW, accounting for 7% of total wind capacity [2]. Key factors driving growth are larger and more efficient turbines, allowing projects to be built further offshore and in deeper waters.

Hydrogen

Hydrogen has emerged as a promising option for energy storage and fuel. When produced via electrolysis using renewable electricity, hydrogen can be a zero-emission fuel source (Hydrogen economy – Wikipedia). Storing energy in the form of hydrogen allows for long-term storage and transport of renewable electricity (Hydrogen Economy – an overview | ScienceDirect Topics).

However, there are challenges to building a hydrogen economy. Producing, storing, and transporting hydrogen requires specialized and expensive infrastructure. Fuel cell vehicles powered by hydrogen currently have limitations in driving range and fueling stations compared to gas or electric vehicles. Safety is also a concern due to hydrogen’s flammability. Overall, transitioning to hydrogen faces technical and economic hurdles (Energy and the Hydrogen Economy). But if these challenges can be overcome, hydrogen could play a major role in a renewable energy future.

Biofuels

Advanced biofuels produced from waste and algal feedstocks show great potential as the next big thing in renewable energy. These advanced biofuels can produce similar performance to conventional fuels without the high emissions.

Production costs for advanced biofuels in 2020 range from $2-4 per gallon gasoline equivalent (GGE) for fuels derived from waste feedstocks to $5-8 per GGE for fuels derived from purpose grown crops like algae [1]. These costs are coming down as conversion technologies improve.

One report estimates that production costs for advanced biofuels from algal feedstocks could decrease to $2-5 per GGE by 2030 with continued research and development [2]. This puts them in the range of current petroleum-based fuels.

Biofuels produced from waste streams like agricultural residues, woody biomass, and even municipal solid waste represent a low-cost and sustainable option. These feedstocks have little to no cost associated with growing and harvesting. Conversion technologies like pyrolysis and biochemical processes can convert the waste materials into advanced biofuels.

Geothermal

One of the most promising next big things in renewable energy is enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). As explained by the U.S. Department of Energy, EGS involves drilling deep wells to inject water into hot, dry rocks in the earth’s crust and extract heat to produce geothermal electricity https://www.energy.gov/eere/geothermal/enhanced-geothermal-systems. This process of extracting heat from the earth through engineered reservoirs is often called “heat mining.”

EGS has enormous potential as a renewable baseload power source. According to the DOE, EGS could provide more than 100 gigawatts of electricity in the U.S. alone, enough to power millions of homes. The key advantages of EGS include its ability to operate 24/7 regardless of weather conditions, smaller land footprint than solar/wind, and utilization of dry rock resources that exist almost everywhere https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2016/05/f31/EGS%20Fact%20Sheet%20May%202016.pdf. While still an emerging technology, rapid advances are being made as engineers learn to create deeper and more productive geothermal reservoirs.

Wave & Tidal

The generation of electricity using the ocean’s tidal currents and waves has vast potential but still faces technological challenges. However, recent advancements are making tidal and wave energy more viable.[1][2] While only a few commercial tidal plants currently exist globally, experts predict the industry will grow as more efficient turbines and infrastructure are developed.[3]

In terms of tidal power, horizontal axis turbines and floating tidal platforms show promise for harnessing tidal currents efficiently. These technologies allow tidal arrays to be positioned in optimal locations. For wave power, point absorbers that capture movement in multiple directions are gaining traction, and control systems that optimize energy capture in diverse sea states are being tested.[1]

The future looks bright for tidal and wave power as the technology improves. However, costs need to fall and reliability needs to increase substantially before we see widespread adoption. But the enormous potential power within the oceans could ultimately make wave and tidal a major contributor to renewable energy production.

Energy Storage

Energy storage will be crucial for enabling greater adoption of renewable energy and supporting grid stability. Some key developments in this area include:

Battery technologies like lithium-ion continue to decline in cost and improve in performance. Major growth is expected in grid-scale battery installations, with capacity forecasted to expand 35-fold between 2022 and 2030 to nearly 970 GW according to the IEA (https://www.iea.org/energy-system/electricity/grid-scale-storage). Companies like Tesla are scaling up production and deployment of grid-scale batteries.

Pumped hydro storage is still the largest form of energy storage, capable of storing large amounts of energy to be used when renewable generation is low. Existing pumped hydro capacity is around 160 GW globally, with significant potential for growth in areas with the proper geography.

Thermal energy storage, including molten salt storage, allows heat to be stored for later use in steam or gas turbines. This provides a way to shift solar thermal power generation to times of peak demand. For example, solar trough plants with molten salt storage can continue generating electricity for hours after sunset.

Microgrids

Microgrids are localized grids that can disconnect from the traditional grid to operate autonomously. According to a recent study, microgrids are gaining momentum as a way to increase grid resilience, integrate renewable energy, and serve localized loads (Source 1).

The adoption of microgrids is accelerating due to their ability to provide backup power during widespread outages. By operating independently, microgrids can enhance reliability for critical services and provide electricity locally when the main grid goes down. This increased resilience is a major driver in the rise of microgrid installations according to industry experts (Source 2).

The global microgrid market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.1% from 2023-2032, reaching over $7 billion in valuation by 2032. This substantial growth demonstrates the rising importance of microgrids as a resilient energy solution (Source 3). Key factors driving adoption include increased extreme weather events, grid modernization efforts, and the proliferation of distributed renewable energy resources.

Conclusion

In summary, some of the most promising renewable energy technologies for the future are solar, wind, hydrogen, and energy storage. Solar power has shown rapid growth and cost reductions in recent years, making it more competitive. Both rooftop solar and large-scale solar farms have great potential to expand globally. Wind power is also becoming more widespread and has vast room to grow through both onshore and offshore wind farms.

Another key area is hydrogen derived from renewable sources, which has the potential to decarbonize hard-to-electrify sectors like heavy industry and long-haul transportation. Advances in electrolyzers and fuel cells are helping enable a hydrogen economy. Energy storage solutions, like batteries and pumped hydro, are critical for supporting the integration of variable renewables onto the grid. These technologies are seeing major improvements and will play an integral role in future 100% renewable energy systems.

While challenges remain, from intermittent generation to policy and market barriers, dramatic cost reductions and technological innovations in renewables point to a promising clean energy future.