Is Wind Power In Trouble?
Once hailed as a renewable energy panacea, wind power is now facing serious headwinds. The State of Wind Power highlights how wind energy accounted for just 6.6% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2019 despite the industry’s rapid growth over the past decade. Bold claims that wind turbines would sweep away fossil fuel dominance are giving way to concerns that this renewable resource may have reached a plateau. So is wind power truly in trouble or merely experiencing growing pains on the journey to a clean energy future?
Growth of Wind Power
Wind power capacity has expanded rapidly over the past decade. According to the American Clean Power Association, wind power accounted for 9% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2021, up from just 1.5% in 2010. As of 2021, the U.S. had over 122 gigawatts (GW) of installed wind capacity, compared to just 25 GW in 2010. Texas leads the nation with over 38 GW of wind capacity. Other top wind power states include Iowa, Oklahoma, California, Kansas, and Illinois.
The global growth of wind power has been similarly impressive. The International Energy Agency reports that global wind electricity generation reached over 2,100 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2022, up 14% from 2021, and making up the second highest annual growth on record. Much of the global expansion has occurred in China, which accounted for over 60% of new wind installations in 2021.
Several factors have driven the expansion of wind power, including declining costs, technological improvements, and policy support. Continued growth is expected, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration projecting U.S. wind generation to nearly double from 2022 to 2050. However, as discussed later, wind power faces challenges in maintaining its rapid growth.
Economics of Wind Power
The cost of wind power has declined dramatically in recent years, but it is still more expensive than power from fossil fuels in some cases. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, the average cost of land-based wind power fell from around $0.38 per kilowatt-hour in 2009 to $0.03 per kWh in 20191. This makes wind cost-competitive with fossil fuels like coal and natural gas in many markets now. However, wind projects may not be cost-competitive in locations with lower wind resources that produce less energy1. The levelized cost of onshore wind ranges from $26–$54 per MWh, while the cost of coal is around $65 per MWh2. So while wind is increasingly competitive, costs can still be higher than fossil fuels depending on the specific project site.
Going forward, continued technology improvements and economies of scale could further reduce wind energy costs. But transmission infrastructure, siting challenges, and intermittent generation may continue to make wind more expensive than fossil fuel alternatives in some cases.
Government Subsidies
Government subsidies and tax credits have played a crucial role in supporting the growth of the wind power industry in the United States. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, federal subsidies for renewable energy more than doubled between fiscal year 2016 and fiscal year 2022, increasing from $7.4 billion to $15.6 billion (EIA). Renewable energy subsidies accounted for nearly half (46%) of all federal energy subsidies in fiscal year 2022 (Institute for Energy Research).
The most important subsidy for wind power projects in the U.S. is the production tax credit (PTC), which provides wind farm owners with a tax credit per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated. The PTC has helped spur significant growth in wind power over the past two decades. However, the PTC is not permanent and has gone through cycles of expiration and renewal, creating an unstable investment environment. Many in the wind industry argue that long-term policy certainty through a permanent PTC is needed to sustain growth.
Transmission Challenges
One of the major challenges for wind power is transmitting the electricity from remote wind farms to population centers that need the power. Many of the best wind resources are located in rural areas far from cities, yet energy demand is highest in urban areas (TESUP 5 KW and 120 kWh/Day Max Magnum 5 Wind Turbine (Made in Europe)). Long distance transmission lines are needed to deliver the electricity, but these can be costly to construct and maintain. The Midwestern region of the U.S. in particular has abundant wind but lacks sufficient transmission capacity to fully utilize wind resources (States Reimagine Power Grids for Wind and Solar Future).
Upgrading transmission lines is essential but faces difficulties like permitting issues, objections from local communities, and coordinating buildout across multiple states and regions (Coleman 48400). Transmission planning and cost allocation for large interstate projects is complex, requiring cooperation between federal, regional, state, and private entities. However, building out the grid is critical for integrating growing amounts of wind and solar energy while maintaining reliability.
Local Opposition
While wind power has grown significantly in the past decade, one of the challenges it faces is local opposition and ‘NIMBYism’ (Not In My Back Yard). Researchers have found that proposed wind farms often face pushback from local residents, stemming from concerns over visual impacts, noise, and decreased property values [1].
One 2023 study analyzed data on over 1,500 proposed wind projects to identify predictors of local opposition. They found that factors like a rural location and proximity to turbines increased resistance, while higher levels of education and environmentalism in an area decreased it. Overall, they estimated over 1 in 4 proposed U.S. wind projects face local opposition [1].
Research also shows race may correlate with wind farm opposition, with projects facing more resistance in areas with higher white populations. However, experts debate the extent to which race itself is a causal factor vs. other attributes of high-white areas, like rurality and conservative political views [2].
Overcoming local opposition is an ongoing challenge. Developers increasingly use community outreach and benefit-sharing programs to build support for proposed wind farms [3].
Environmental Impacts
Wind turbines can have negative environmental impacts, especially related to birds and bats. Collisions with wind turbines is a significant cause of bird and bat deaths. According to a study published in Aquatic Biosystems, wind turbines kill between 214,000 and 368,000 birds annually in the U.S. (Bailey et al., 2014). Birds of prey such as eagles, hawks, and falcons are especially at risk. Bats are also killed in large numbers from both onshore and offshore wind turbines. The spinning blades can kill flying bats.
There are ways to help mitigate the environmental impacts. Proper siting of wind projects to avoid major bird migration paths and bat habitats can reduce deaths. New turbine designs and technologies like radar and thermal imaging detection can shut down turbines when flocks approach. Overall, research shows the environmental benefits of wind power far outweigh the harm in comparison to fossil fuels (DOE). But the industry must continue taking steps to reduce environmental harm.
Future Outlook
The future outlook for wind power capacity and electricity generation share is promising according to projections by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA projects that renewable energy will supply 44% of US electricity by 2050, with wind power being a significant contributor to that growth. In the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook, they predict that the share of renewables in US electricity generation will more than double from 2021 to 2050, with wind growing more than any other renewable energy source. The EIA also notes that global energy consumption is projected to increase substantially by 2050, potentially between 16-57% compared to 2022 levels.
This outlook shows great promise for continued expansion of wind power capacity and its share of electricity generation in the coming decades, both in the US and globally. With supportive government policies and technological advances that improve wind turbine efficiency and cost-effectiveness, the wind industry is poised for strong growth as part of the overall transition toward renewable energy.
Emerging Technologies
As wind power expands globally, new turbine designs and concepts are being developed to further improve efficiency and reduce costs.NREL notes several key areas of innovation.
Longer turbine blades, some now over 100 meters long, can capture more wind energy. New lightweight but very strong materials like carbon fiber make these larger blades possible. Taller towers also allow access to stronger and more consistent winds.
Floating offshore wind turbines are being tested and deployed in places where water depths preclude bottom-fixed foundations. These floating platforms promise access to the immense wind resources over deep waters.
Advanced new turbine designs eliminate the need for complex gearboxes and have potential for major cost reductions. Some novel concepts do away with traditional blades entirely, using alternative mechanisms to capture wind energy.
While most of these emerging technologies still need to demonstrate reliability and cost-effectiveness at scale, they highlight the ongoing innovation within the wind power industry.
Conclusion
In summary, wind power has seen tremendous growth over the past two decades, becoming a mainstream energy source in many parts of the world. Falling technology costs, government incentives, and public support for renewable energy have all contributed to this rapid expansion. However, the industry now faces economic and political headwinds that raise questions about its long-term viability.
While wind turbines have become more efficient and costs have dropped, wind power remains heavily dependent on subsidies and preferential policies to compete with conventional power plants. With subsidies being scaled back in key markets like the United States and Europe, the economic competitiveness of wind projects is declining. Transmission infrastructure limitations and local opposition have also hindered growth in some regions.
Looking ahead, the future of wind power will depend on emerging technologies like offshore wind farms and larger turbines that can generate more electricity at lower costs. Whether wind can maintain its rapid growth will also hinge on the trajectory of government policies, transmission infrastructure investment, environmental impacts, and public acceptance. But wind power’s inherent economic and environmental benefits suggest it will remain an important component of the global energy mix going forward.
