Can Solar Power The Whole Country?

With climate change accelerating and fossil fuels diminishing, could solar power provide the energy needed to fully power the country? This question has taken on new urgency as more areas experience extreme weather events linked to rising global temperatures. Finding renewable energy sources is critical to curb further environmental degradation. Solar power offers an abundant and clean energy source, but could it realistically provide all of the country’s electricity needs? This article will examine the potential for scaling up solar power by looking at current usage, future capacity, costs, storage needs, grid improvements, and policy actions required. The goal is to provide a realistic assessment of whether solar alone could power the entire country.

Current Solar Usage

According to statistics, about 3.4% of the electricity generated in the U.S. is powered by solar energy as of 2022, up from 2.8% in 2021. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that the percentage of U.S. electric capacity additions from solar will continue to grow, reaching 45% in 2022 which is equivalent to 17 gigawatts of new solar capacity. While solar currently makes up a small percentage of the overall U.S. energy mix, adoption has been rapidly increasing in recent years and is projected to continue growing in the coming decades.

Solar Potential

The United States has immense potential for solar power generation due to the availability of land and solar irradiation. According to a report from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, converting just 22,000 square miles of land, or about 0.6% of the continental U.S. land area, into solar farms would be enough to power the entire country. This is a relatively modest amount of land compared to the nearly 2 billion acres across the contiguous states. The Southwest region has been identified as particularly suitable for large-scale solar projects because of its high solar insolation levels and vast tracts of flat, undeveloped land. However, solar potential exists across much of the country. Factors like panel efficiency, directional orientation, and weather conditions determine the productive capacity of any given area of solar panels.

Costs

The cost of solar power has declined dramatically in recent years, making it increasingly competitive with conventional energy sources like coal and natural gas. According to the Solar Energy Industries Association, the average cost of a residential solar system in the U.S. dropped by more than 70% between 2010 and 2020, from $7.34 per watt to $2.88 per watt.

However, solar is still more expensive than fossil fuels on a per kilowatt-hour basis. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates the unsubsidized levelized cost of energy from a new solar PV project entering service in 2023 will be $37.44 per megawatt-hour. This compares to $33.02 for advanced natural gas and $26.37 for advanced coal.

Solar costs do vary significantly by region though, and are cheapest in the Southwest U.S. states like Arizona and Nevada where solar resources are strongest. With federal tax credits and other incentives, solar can be cost-competitive with conventional power in many markets now. But as incentives phase down, further cost declines will likely be needed for full competitiveness.

Source: EIA – Levelized cost and levelized avoided cost of new generation resources

Storage Needs

One of the biggest challenges with solar power is that it is an intermittent energy source, only generating electricity when the sun is shining. This means energy storage is critical for solar to reach high levels of penetration on the grid. Without storage, solar power cannot provide reliable 24/7 baseload power like fossil fuels or nuclear can (1).

Luckily, storage technology is rapidly improving. Lithium-ion batteries have become much cheaper over the last decade, making home solar battery storage affordable (2). Utility-scale batteries are also growing quickly, with projects in the gigawatt-hour scale now being built. Other storage methods like pumped hydro and compressed air allow utilities to store solar energy on a large scale. Advanced power electronics help smooth short-term solar variability. With enough storage capacity, solar could provide most or all power at certain times of day (3).

While costs are declining, storage for a 100% solar grid would still be extremely expensive with today’s tech. But continued innovation could make cheap, long-duration grid storage possible in the coming decades. How fast storage costs fall will be a key factor in determining solar’s potential to power the whole country.

Transmission Capacity

Upgrading and expanding transmission infrastructure is crucial for scaling up solar power across the country. The current U.S. transmission system was not designed to handle the amount of renewable energy needed to fully power the grid with solar. According to the Department of Interior, modernizing the grid is critical to “unlocking access to renewable energy across public, private, and state lands” (https://www.doi.gov/ocl/renewable-energy-transmission-infrastructure).

Major investments and upgrades will be needed in high-voltage transmission lines to transmit solar power from large utility-scale solar farms to population centers. New transmission lines also help distribute and balance solar power across regions. According to Stateline, it can take much longer to build transmission infrastructure than to launch new solar and wind projects. Planning and permitting new lines is a lengthy process (https://stateline.org/2023/01/25/states-reimagine-power-grids-for-wind-and-solar-future/).

Upgrading transmission will require coordination between federal, state, and regional planners. Policies and funding to incentivize transmission projects will also be key. With the right investments and policies, the U.S. can modernize its aging grid to unlock the full potential of solar energy.

Policy Actions

The U.S. federal government has implemented a number of policies and incentives to encourage the adoption and expansion of solar power, including tax credits, rebates, and subsidies. The most significant is the federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC), which provides a 26% tax credit for systems installed in 2020-2022 and 30% for systems installed in 2023. After 2023, the ITC will step down incrementally before expiring completely in 2034 [1]. This tax credit applies to both residential and commercial solar installations and has helped drive substantial growth in solar adoption over the past decade [2].

Many states, cities, and utilities also offer additional rebates and incentives for solar, which can be researched through databases like DSIRE (Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency) [3]. Local policies like solar mandates, net metering, and streamlined permitting have also enabled growth. Ongoing subsidies and supportive policies will be needed to facilitate the large-scale deployment of solar required for it to generate a major share of the nation’s electricity.

Environmental Impact

Solar energy has significant environmental benefits compared to fossil fuels. By generating electricity from the sun rather than burning fossil fuels, solar power helps reduce air pollution and carbon emissions. According to Dynamics Solar, solar energy helps conserve water and reduces a carbon footprint. Solar panels themselves have a low environmental impact as they are primarily made of silicon from sand. As noted by Olson Solar Energy, solar panels eliminate the need for fossil fuels and gas, reducing air pollution.

Specifically, solar energy can drastically cut carbon emissions that contribute to climate change. As explained by Arka360, solar panels produce no carbon emissions during operation, while fossil fuels release substantial carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Switching to solar energy from fossil fuels could reduce carbon emissions from electricity generation by over 80%, based on US Energy Information Administration data. With solar electricity generation projected to triple by 2050, massive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from the power sector are achievable.

In summary, solar energy provides major environmental benefits through displacing fossil fuel usage, substantially cutting carbon emissions and mitigating climate change impacts. With solar power capacity expanding rapidly, the transition away from polluting energy sources is an environmental breakthrough.

Job Creation

The solar industry has been a strong source of job growth in recent years. According to a Reuters article, U.S. solar industry jobs rose 9% in 2021 to over 250,000 jobs, with most of the job growth coming from installation. Solar companies like Catamount Solar are hiring more licensed electricians, solar installers, and other roles to meet demand. The solar industry offers well-paying jobs that cannot be outsourced, providing economic opportunities across the country.

Conclusion

In summary, while solar power has tremendous potential as a renewable energy source in the United States, fully powering the entire country with solar energy remains challenging due to constraints around storage, transmission capacity, and costs. However, the solar industry is projected to grow significantly in the coming years, with annual solar installations potentially tripling by 2028 according to industry forecasts. With continued technology improvements, policy support, and falling costs, solar could realistically generate over 30% of the nation’s electricity by 2030. While technical and economic hurdles persist, the future outlook for solar energy in the U.S. market looks increasingly bright.